As the war in the Ukraine continues, you might have heard some rumours about fuel prices in South Africa (SA). Some commentators that I would not refer to as experts even believe that fuel prices can reach R40 a litre. Although nothing is impossible, I doubt this has much more than a 10% probability of occurring.
Read full articleThe whole world continues to look on in disbelief as Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine drags on, despite heavy sanctions and the seizing of assets from anything or anyone related to Russia. Russian flights have been restricted and travel bans have been imposed. The United Kingdom (UK) has cut Russian companies out of their insurance market, the world’s largest commercial and speciality insurance centre.
Read full articleDuring February, market uncertainty peaked, and this caused volatility to erupt. After a lot of negotiations, media staging, propaganda, and hard sanctions, Russia invaded the Ukraine. The reasons for this invasion range from believable to fanatical, and even includes a conspiracy or two.
Read full articleAs market, economic, and finance experts, we often get asked questions about investing in alternative assets, from property to cryptocurrencies. Because these assets fall outside of the scope of many of the regulatory bodies of traditional finance in South Africa (SA), we can, at best, use our expertise to inform and to educate clients; we cannot give advice. We hope that clients can use our expertise as part of the research that they do to make the best asset allocation decisions.
Read full articleIn his latest State of the Nation Address (SONA), President Ramaphosa, once again, delivered a pro-business message. He explained that: “The key task of government is to create the conditions that will enable the private sector to emerge, to grow, to access new markets, to create new products, and to hire more employees”.
Read full articleWe all knew that markets would be volatile this year, but I doubt that many thought that they would see something like the 26% single-day fall in the share price of Meta, Facebook’s parent company.
Read full articleJanuary usually starts with a lot of ‘hopium’, that is, irrational optimism. Consumers come back from holiday, well rested and ready for the new year. A new year full of new opportunities: #newyearnewyou, #2022, and #thisismyyear fill reels on Twitter and Instagram.
Read full articleMost investors in South Africa (SA) have more exposure to the South African equity market than to any other global market. This unfortunate strategy has cost them much in terms of returns over the long term but will continue to benefit them in the short term.
Read full articleAnd so, the new year is upon us! Because we always get the same questions at the beginning of each year, I thought I would use this year’s first newsletter to introduce you to the main themes that we are considering and to provide you with some forecasts.
Read full articleAt the end of 2021, we find ourselves at the tipping point in terms of global macroeconomics. For more than a decade, most of the world’s largest economies have been running an (unsustainable) monetary experiment, keeping interest rates at historic lows, and forcing liquidity into the system with tools such as quantitative easing (QE). Forewarned by what happened in Japan, where longer-term QE nationalised the bond market and supressed growth rates, many of these large economies know that they need to change course.
Read full articleLittle over a week ago, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to increase interest rates by 0.25%, as we expected they would. With a slight 3-2 majority, the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of an increase rather than to keep the rates unchanged.
Read full articleAnd then, it finally happened... Inflation in the developed world erupted. Germany’s inflation came in at 4.5% in October, whereas inflation in the United States (US) rocketed to a 30-year-high of 6.2%. In the United Kingdom (UK), the Bank of England warned consumers that inflation could breach 5% in 2022. In many ways, inflation levels in the developed world are starting to look like something out of a third-world horror movie.
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