The United States’ (US) second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was disappointing, coming in at 6.5% instead of the expected 8.5%. However, the US has in fact now recovered from its largest peak-to-trough fall in output on record.
Read full articleIn a recent newsletter, I briefly mentioned our concern around regulatory uncertainty in China. In July, however, this became one of our main themes after the MSCI China, a broad index that tracks the Chinese equity market, fell by 18.8%.
Read full articleIn the United States (US), inflation, once again, surprised to the upside. Compared to June 2020, headline inflation increased to 5.4% in June 2021, up from May’s 5.0%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose by 4.5%.
Read full articleHow you interpret the world around you and, subsequently, forecast what may be, is based on your worldview. Your worldview is, to a large extent, shaped by your external environment (experiences and exposure) and your internal thoughts and emotions.
Read full articleThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), together with their new ally, Russia, have, once again, been unable to reach an agreement about global oil supply. Disagreements between OPEC members have been a feature of the cartel since it started more than 60 years ago.
Read full articleLast week officials from 130 countries, representing 90% of the global gross domestic product (GDP), met virtually to agree on the broad outlines of what would be the most sweeping change in international taxation in a century. The Biden-backed 15% global minimum tax (GMT) aims to prevent multinational corporations from pitting countries against one another in a bid to push tax rates down.
Read full articleDuring June, the bipartisan infrastructure negotiations in the United States (US) continued. A $1.2 trillion plan initially emerged from the two parties, which set out additional infrastructure spending close to $600 billion.
Read full articleLast week United States (US) markets closed the week in negative territory: the Dow Jones fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 lost 1.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%. This came after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had a much more hawkish outlook than initially anticipated, driven by a faster than expected recovery.
Read full articlePress reports seem to suggest that United States (US) senators have reached some kind of a bipartisan agreement about President Jo Biden’s infrastructure proposal. Although the details are yet to be finalized, it seems the proposal will include upwards of $579 billion in additional infrastructure spending over the next couple of years.
Read full articleAs per usual, May was the volatile month that we have come to expect it to be and probably nowhere else was this truer than among cryptocurrencies. After a phenomenal run, which saw Bitcoin reach new all-time highs of around $60 000, the cryptocurrency plunged nearly 50% to a low of around $30 000 and has been struggling to recover ever since.
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