Economic Overview - Efficient Private Clients
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Economic Overview

  • Market activity remained choppy in February, as investors navigated a mix of geopolitical flare-ups and technology-led rotation. The United States (US)-Iran conflict and late-month US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs added fresh uncertainty. Oil and gold prices surged in response to heightened Middle East tensions, even as the US dollar strengthened from its lows.

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  • The year began with a familiar mix of market concentration, heightened geopolitical tensions, and uneven economic signals, all of which contributed to elevated volatility. The United States (US), once again, sat at the centre of global market narratives, as renewed tariff threats and foreign policy actions revived the “Sell America” theme.

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  • Following a broadly weaker performance in November, most asset classes saw modest stabilisation towards the end of the year, although gains remained limited and uneven. Risk appetite remained cautious, and market leadership narrowed, as investors increasingly focused on locking in profits after a strong year.

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  • After a strong run in the first ten months of 2025, global stock markets slowed in November. This was despite a robust earnings season and rising hopes for a United States (US) interest-rate cut in December. Although an end to the longest-ever US government shutdown on record (43 days) brought some relief, market uncertainty around economic data and the impact on growth, as well as monetary policy, resulted in a slightly more toned-down approach to risk assets.

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  • Global financial markets entered October riding the tailwind from September’s excitement. Optimism, however, faded somewhat as trade tensions between the United States (US) and China resurfaced, economic data underwhelmed, and the lingering US government shutdown began to test investor sentiment.

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  • Financial markets concluded September, and Quarter 3, on a positive note despite persistent trade policy anxiety, growing global government debt level concerns, and ongoing inflation vigilance. Sentiment was supported by higher expectations for interest rate cuts, on the back of weakness in the United States (US) labour market, as well as resilient corporate earnings.

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  • Financial markets extended their gains in August, despite various headwinds from trade tensions, sticky inflation, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Developed equity markets advanced broadly, supported by positive earnings surprises from technology and cyclical stocks.

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  • Despite significant noise from trade negotiations, United States (US) debt concerns following the passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and monetary policy uncertainty, markets provided a strong start to the second half of 2025.

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  • Global markets defied gravity in June, climbing to new record highs despite a gloomy backdrop of rising trade protectionism, disappointing macro-economic prints, and intensifying geopolitical turbulence that would normally shake the markets.

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  • Global financial markets staged a significant recovery in May. This recovery was driven by a fragile easing in United States (US) trade policies, most notably with China and the European Union (EU). These developments rekindled risk appetite but also highlighted how quickly sentiment could sour if tariff talks break down.

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  • Global financial markets grappled with mounting uncertainty during March, driven by weakening economic data and escalating global trade tensions. President Donald Trump further strained United States (US) trade relations by announcing new tariffs on goods like steel and aluminium, along with a 25% tariff on foreign-made vehicles and automotive parts. The latter was set to be implemented from 2 April.

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  • February proved to be another volatile month for financial markets, as escalating geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and obscure economic data releases fuelled market uncertainty. The month started with even higher levels of geopolitical tensions than usual, with United States (US) President Donald Trump announcing the implementation of tariffs against US trade partners.

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