During June, the bipartisan infrastructure negotiations in the United States (US) continued. A $1.2 trillion plan initially emerged from the two parties, which set out additional infrastructure spending close to $600 billion.
Read full articleA few years back we set out to estimate the economic cost of load shedding in South Africa (SA). Because our focus was purely on the economic side, we excluded the social costs associated with load shedding, which would, of course, have inflated our findings.
Read full articleDemocrats in the United States (US) will do what Democrats do, that is, spend more (mostly on the “not rich”) and tax more (mostly on the “rich”). In the past, we discussed the proposed $1.75 trillion infrastructure plans that President Joe Biden has, as a clever way of increasing the long-term returns (gross domestic product (GDP) growth) of the US economy.
Read full articleRecently published research showed that pandemic stimulus failed in emerging markets. Among the top emerging and developed economies, there is no correlation between the stimulus programmes of 2020 and the strength of the ensuing recovery.
Read full articleLast week, markets were concerned about the persistent nature of higher-than-expected inflation, its implications for tighter monetary policy, and the eventual negative impact of tighter monetary policy on financial markets.
Read full articleGiven the recent deceleration in COVID-19 cases and the pickup in activity indicators, we believe that the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow through with their planned taper announcement at the upcoming policy meeting in November.
Read full articleSomething we try to do as economists is to observe and to report on shifts in long-term trends. This is an important task because it can help individuals and businesses to make better long-term decisions. During September, two long-term shifts became ever more apparent.
Read full articleLast week’s economic activity data reinforced our feeling that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa (SA) will remain subdued, and that we are still some distance away from pre-pandemic levels. Recently, the retail and manufacturing sectors took a hard blow owing to violent unrests and tighter COVID-19 restrictions.
Read full articleLast week, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported on South Africa’s (SA’s) second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). We were glad to see that GDP growth came in better than expected. Consensus believed that growth in the second quarter would be somewhere around 0.9%, when measured against the previous quarter, but was, in fact, 1.2%.
Read full articleMore and more data from major economies in the Northern Hemisphere is showing that economic recoveries have started to lose steam. This is evident from both survey and hard-activity data that were released during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer break.
Read full articleDuring the past week or so, there has been considerable talk about South Africa’s (SA’s) fiscal multiplier, a ratio that illustrates by how much output rises for each level of government spending.
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