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Economic Overview

AllEconomic OverviewMarket CommentaryQuarterly MemorandumVideosVoice Notes
  • 11 October 2023

    In the immediate term (three to five years), things can get much worse in South Africa (SA). Each South African must, therefore, decide if they will sit back and blame others or if they will act and make the most of it. In the end, there is one of two decisions: Blaming or changing, which stems from being passive or active, which, ultimately, stems from your worldview (whether you are, generally, pessimistic or optimistic).

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  • 5 October 2023

    Taking a hiatus from checking your investment portfolio for a month can be akin to stepping back from the canvas of daily market fluctuations. It is a deliberate act of patience, allowing the market’s ebb and flow to paint its own picture before returning to assess the masterpiece.

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  • 27 September 2023

    In his address to the public last week, Lesetja Kganyago, the Governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), announced that the Monetary Policy Committee will keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 8.25%. This came shortly after Statistics South Africa showed that consumer prices were contained well within the SARB’s target range of 3% to 6%. After a decrease to 4.7% in July, prices only marginally increased to 4.8% in August, driven mostly by higher food, household, and utility prices. Interestingly, the cost of transport, which includes fuel prices, was lower compared with a year ago.

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  • 19 September 2023

    The investment industry, like most other professions, has evolved over time with various approaches and strategies coming to the fore, each with its own inherent characteristics. When investing in listed shares, two dominant approaches stand out: Fundamental bottom-up and top-down investment strategies. These approaches represent distinct methodologies for selecting and managing investment portfolios, each rooted in a unique perspective and analysis framework.

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  • 15 September 2023

    Last week, prices of both grades of petrol went up by R1.71 per litre while diesel increased by close to R3 per litre. The recent jump in fuel prices is driven by a twofold weakening of the exchange rate and a substantially higher oil price. Having started at around R17 to the United States (US) dollar at the start of the year, the rand has now depreciated by more than 11% year-to-date. The oil price, in turn, has increased by more than 10% already this year, reaching its latest level just above $90 a barrel. A higher oil price will likely add to inflationary pressure, although the impact of higher fuel prices is usually overstated.

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  • 8 September 2023

    The term “economics” has its roots in ancient Greece. It is derived from two Greek words, namely “oikos”, which means “house”, and “nomos”, which means “law” or “custom”. When combined, “oikonomia” roughly translates to “household management” and concerns itself with the efficient allocation of resources within a household.

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  • 29 August 2023

    Central banks in many countries around the world keep on talking a big game, and rightfully so. If consumers start believing that above-trend inflation is over, they might push inflation higher into unwanted territories again. But for now, it seems as though central banks have succeeded in containing inflation. Amidst the sea of short-term noise, it is difficult to determine how the global economy will make it out in one piece. But, fundamentally, we should see stronger emerging markets on the other end.

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  • 22 August 2023

    The world of finance and investments is often associated with numbers and statistics but the real-world experience looks a bit different with behavioural patterns often playing a significant role in financial markets. Behavioural finance is the study of the psychological influences and biases that both investors and financial practitioners experience when making financial decisions.

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  • 15 August 2023

    This week, we venture into the realm of alternative assets, where the mundane gives way to exhilarating possibilities. We discover the enchantment of cryptocurrencies, vintage wines, and fine art, all unconventional yet alluring avenues for wealth growth. This uncharted territory blends innovation with risk, rewriting the rules of traditional investments.

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  • 3 August 2023

    For almost three decades, the ruling party in South Africa (SA) has been relying on redistributive policies to build a more economically-just society. In doing so, SA’s inequality, as measured by the Gini coefficient, improved but only marginally. Unfortunately, SA is still the most unequal country in the world. But by using the incorrect policies, we now also have the highest unemployment rate, especially if we consider youth unemployment and that almost half of our population still lives in poverty.

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  • 31 July 2023

    Efficiency can be defined as the ability to achieve an end goal with little to no waste, effort, or energy. While efficiency is a key part of the Efficient Group’s inherent philosophy and the way that it goes about its business (the name says it all), this definition does not encapsulate the essence of the Group’s 20-year journey. Indeed, it has been an all-out effort from day one. Without endless energy, passion, and enthusiasm, there would be no Efficient Group today.

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  • 25 July 2023

    The global economy is heading towards an evermore uncertain place. Late in 2021, markets anticipated that central banks around the world would start to increase interest rates, and they subsequently did. Now, almost 18 months later, economies are giving mixed signals. Inflation is coming down in key regions, like North America and Europe, but not enough. Some economies, like India, are showing signs of life but others, like China, are really struggling.

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