During June, the bipartisan infrastructure negotiations in the United States (US) continued. A $1.2 trillion plan initially emerged from the two parties, which set out additional infrastructure spending close to $600 billion.
Read full articleSomething we try to do as economists is to observe and to report on shifts in long-term trends. This is an important task because it can help individuals and businesses to make better long-term decisions. During September, two long-term shifts became ever more apparent.
Read full articleLast week’s economic activity data reinforced our feeling that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in South Africa (SA) will remain subdued, and that we are still some distance away from pre-pandemic levels. Recently, the retail and manufacturing sectors took a hard blow owing to violent unrests and tighter COVID-19 restrictions.
Read full articleLast week, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported on South Africa’s (SA’s) second quarter gross domestic product (GDP). We were glad to see that GDP growth came in better than expected. Consensus believed that growth in the second quarter would be somewhere around 0.9%, when measured against the previous quarter, but was, in fact, 1.2%.
Read full articleMore and more data from major economies in the Northern Hemisphere is showing that economic recoveries have started to lose steam. This is evident from both survey and hard-activity data that were released during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer break.
Read full articleDuring the past week or so, there has been considerable talk about South Africa’s (SA’s) fiscal multiplier, a ratio that illustrates by how much output rises for each level of government spending.
Read full articleLast week another collection of positive economic indicators emerged from the United States (US). Many more experts have, therefore, voiced the opinion that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might start to curb their monetary support by the end of 2021.
Read full articleThe United States’ (US) second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was disappointing, coming in at 6.5% instead of the expected 8.5%. However, the US has in fact now recovered from its largest peak-to-trough fall in output on record.
Read full articleIn a recent newsletter, I briefly mentioned our concern around regulatory uncertainty in China. In July, however, this became one of our main themes after the MSCI China, a broad index that tracks the Chinese equity market, fell by 18.8%.
Read full articleIn the United States (US), inflation, once again, surprised to the upside. Compared to June 2020, headline inflation increased to 5.4% in June 2021, up from May’s 5.0%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose by 4.5%.
Read full articleHow you interpret the world around you and, subsequently, forecast what may be, is based on your worldview. Your worldview is, to a large extent, shaped by your external environment (experiences and exposure) and your internal thoughts and emotions.
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