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Economic Overview

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  • 21 February 2023

    It is undeniable that South Africa’s (SA’s) economy is in a poor state. But evidence suggests that the rate of deterioration has slowed down considerably. In fact, a strong case can be made to show that the rate of improvement is greater than the rate of deterioration. And, if that is the case, the long-term trajectory is towards a flourishing rather than towards a withering economy, an economy where employment income and life expectancies increase rather than decrease.

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  • 15 February 2023

    Yue Fei, the son of an impoverished farmer from Northern China, is one of China’s most decorated and celebrated war heroes. As the Jurchens invaded Southern China in the 1130s, it was Yue Fei who showed tremendous courage as he and his troops fended off the advancing army. He was so courageous that he once, with only 500 men, defeated 100 000 Jurchen soldiers. To this day, Yue Fei is a national symbol of hope during difficult times.

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  • 8 February 2023

    Last week, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) increased interest rates for the eighth consecutive time since they started their rate-hiking cycle in November 2021. Since then, the prime interest rate has increased by 3.75% to 10.75%, its highest level since 2009. This means that every R1 million debt that a household has, will now be roughly R3 125 more expensive each month; a thought that is keeping many South Africans awake at night.

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  • 2 February 2023

    The market-based losses of 2022 make it tempting to look back in awe, in frustration, and in anger. But do not. The first month of 2023 provided active investors with a glimpse of what might lie ahead in 2023.

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  • 26 January 2023

    Global markets were all over the show the past week, trying to digest the myriad of, often opposing, data that was released from all around the world. When considering the likely growth trajectory of the global economy market, observers turn towards the large economic blocks: The United States (US), Europe, and China (which is often also used as a proxy for growth in Asia). Data from the US and China stole the show last week.

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  • 17 January 2023

    Here we are, another new year with all of its potential, whether good or bad. Most investors seem anxious, and for good reason, as the last few years have not been kind. So, what do we expect from 2023? Well, first, it is important to remember that forecasts are, at best, well-informed guestimates.

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  • 8 December 2022

    Finally, we come to the end of another volatile year that tested the best of us. Since the latter parts of 2018, global markets have not been kind towards investors. Markets fell by roughly 15% in the final stretches of 2018, then recovered, and then the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 beat down the markets by more than 30%. After governments stepped in with substantial fiscal and monetary support, which ballooned debt and overstimulated demand even more, the recovery was quick.

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  • 22 November 2022

    The 2022 Soccer World Cup that started on 20 November has become a hot topic at social gatherings, birthdays, and even work functions. With people’s spirits up because of more positive markets, coupled with the smell of summer and the December holiday around the corner, soccer supporters will undoubtedly fancy the chances of their favourite team winning this year’s tournament.

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  • 15 November 2022

    Global markets received some welcome news last week when the annual pace of consumer price inflation (CPI) in the United States (US) was lower than expected in October, coming in at only 7.7%, down from 8.2% in September. Pre-holiday retail discounting, a decline in used car prices, and a welcome easing in rental inflation were key drivers of the overall decline in CPI. Lower inflation will provide some relief to consumers and investors, as well as give some momentum to the idea that the worst is now behind them.

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  • 8 November 2022

    Airbnb, an online marketplace focussed on short-term homestays and experiences, reported its highest quarterly profits ever, confirming that the travel industry continues its pandemic recovery in the face of historic inflation. This, in turn, confirms that global demand is still strong and that central banks will need to do more to curb demand and the upwards effect that it has on high inflation.

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  • 3 November 2022

    Investors have experienced a rigid “dichotomy” in financial markets over the past two months: September and October stood in stark contrast to one another. Within the space of two months, we have experienced one of the worst and one of the best months of the year.

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  • 25 October 2022

    During the last couple of months, we have partnered with many financial advisors, doing our utmost best, to keep investors calm during this period of extreme volatility. It has not been an easy task. Since the last quarter of 2018, global markets have seen three major disruptions. In 2018, indices such as the S&P 500 contracted by more than 15% during the last quarter.

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