After having suffered through September, global markets, historically, tend to experience more positive performance during the last three months of the year. Even though the chance of this may look slim this year, when compared with previous years, a year-end rally may just be on the table.
Read full articleAfter more than a decade of above-trend market performance, many developed markets have started a process of mean reversion. Many leading global banks and asset managers believe that the average annual share performance among companies in the United States (US) will only be 5% in USD over the next decade. This is far less than the above 20% annual growth that we often saw over the past decade.
Read full article“Historically, September is the worst month of the year for equities.” We used these cautionary words in our previous monthly newsletter to describe a possible poor month for markets in September. It would seem that we could not have chosen our words any better for what lay ahead.
Read full articleLast week, the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) increased interest rates by 0.75% for the third consecutive time this year. Interest rates in the US now range between 3% and 3.25%, and many expect that rates will, most likely, increase to 4.40% by the end of the year. Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, made it clear that they are willing to do whatever it takes to ensure that inflation is brought under control.
Read full articleThere are many rumours going around again about how bad our economy will perform this year, and possibly in the years to come. Many South Africans blame a variety of aspects for this poor performance. If your political convictions lean to the right in South Africa (SA), you have the more erroneous view that government can do a better job than the market when it comes to allocating scarce resources. Your answer to the current low economic growth environment is, therefore, to nationalise resources.
Read full articleThere are many rumours going around again about how bad our economy will perform this year, and possibly in the years to come. Many South Africans blame a variety of aspects for this poor performance. If your political convictions lean to the right in South Africa (SA), you have the more erroneous view that government can do a better job than the market when it comes to allocating scarce resources. Your answer to the current low economic growth environment is, therefore, to nationalise resources
Read full articleBenjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, once described the global stock market as a manic-depressive person whose erratic behaviour changes daily. Let us call this person ‘Mr Market’.
Read full articleMarkets in the United States (US) were shocked when Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Jerome Powell, gave his annual address at the Central Bank Summit in Jackson Hole. In the past, this event has been used to make important announcements about central bank policy. In the early 2000s, US central bankers used the event to announce that they would start cutting interest rates to support economic activity, which finally led to the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.
Read full articleThe Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) recently said that it will soon publish the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in South Africa. Many in the industry, especially those who support the technology, have been anxiously awaiting this legislation for quite some time. Previously, the FSCA was vocal about declaring cryptocurrencies as financial products and this past week the Prudential Authority Division at the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) shared a similar sentiment.
Read full articleInvestors breathed a sigh of relief last week after data from the United States (US) Department of Labor showed that US inflation finally eased from its four-decade high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), an index used to measure the rate of price increases among households, came in lower than analysts expected: It increased 8.5% from a year earlier, cooling off from the 9.1% high that we saw in June.
Read full articleMillennials and Generation Z are unlikely to remember that, back in 1997, Asia was dealt a significant blow by the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed), who, through their actions, caused the US dollar to appreciate substantially. Halfway around the world it was July 1997 and monsoon season was on its way in Thailand, but that year the country’s currency, the baht, would experience a monsoon of a different kind.
Read full articleDuring July, the main themes on the economic front were interest rates and the fight against inflation. Most central banks across the globe have now set their firing power against inflation. Past rumours around ‘transitory’ (read temporary) inflation have long since quietened down.
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